Xinrong Zhu ☕️
Xinrong Zhu 朱鑫榕

Assistant Professor

About Me

Welcome! I am an Assistant Professor in Marketing at Imperial College London Business School.

My research interests include quantitative marketing, empirical industrial organization, and retail analytics. One stream of my research studies product assortment and availability in retail industry, and the role of vertical relationships in shaping the retail landscape. Current projects study the inference and impacts of category captaincy contract, and how it affects new product entry. Another stream of my research focuses on understanding the causal impact of policy changes, marketing activities or politics on changing consumer behaviors. I apply quantitative methods including structural econometrics, Bayesian methods, causal inference techniques, text analytics, and machine learning to study marketing problems.

I received my PhD in Economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Pronunciation of my name: shin-rong.

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Interests
  • Quantitative marketing
  • Empirical Industrial Organisation
  • Retail Analytics
  • Vertical Relationships
Education
  • PhD in Economics

    University of Wisconsin-Madison

  • PhD Program in Economics

    Cornell University

  • MS in Economics

    Renmin University of China

Publications

GMO and non-GMO Labeling Effects: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment

with Aaron Adalja, Jura Liaukonyte and Emily Wang. Marketing Science (2022)

Abstract
The United States recently mandated disclosure labels on all foods that contain genetically modified organisms (GMOs), despite longstanding, widespread use of voluntary third-party non-GMO labeling. We leverage the earlier passage and implementation of a mandatory GMO labeling law in Vermont as a quasi-natural experiment to show that adding this mandatory labeling into a market with pre-existing voluntary non-GMO labels had no effect on demand. Instead, the legislative process made consumers aware of GMO topics and increased non-GMO product sales before the GMO labeling mandate went into effect. The GMO-related legislative processes also increased non-GMO product demand in other states that considered, but did not implement, GMO labeling mandates. We find that 36% of new non-GMO product adoption can be explained by differences in consumer awareness tied to legislative activity. Our findings suggest that voluntary non-GMO labels may have provided an efficient disclosure mechanism without mandatory GMO labels.

Frontiers: Spilling the Beans on Political Consumerism: Do Social Media Boycotts and Buycotts Translate to Real Sales Impact?

with Jura Liaukonyte and Anna Tuchman. Marketing Science (2022)
Media Coverage: BBC4 Analysis, BBC4 AntiSocial

Abstract
Brands increasingly face pressure from consumers to take a stance on political issues, but there is limited empirical evidence on the effect of political consumerism on sales. In this paper, we quantify the consequences of a brand taking a political stance. In July 2020, the chief executive officer of Goya, a large Latin food brand, praised then president Donald Trump, triggering a boycott and a counter buycott movement supporting the brand. Using consumer-level purchase data, we measure the net effect of the boycott/buycott movements on sales. Boycott-related social media posts and media coverage dominated buycott ones, but the sales impact was the opposite: Goya sales temporarily increased by 22%. However, this net sales boost fully dissipated within three weeks. We then explore heterogeneity in the sales response with the goal of understanding which households are most likely to engage in political consumerism and what factors serve as frictions to participation. We document large sales increases (56.4%) in heavily Republican counties but do not find a strong countervailing boycott effect in heavily Democratic counties or among Goya’s core customer base—Latino consumers. Finally, we show that brand loyalty and switching costs are potential explanations for the limited evidence of boycotting among experienced Goya customers.

Rejoinder: Spilling more Beans on Political Consumerism: It is More of the Same Tune

with Jura Liaukonyte and Anna Tuchman. Invited comment, Marketing Science (2023)

Abstract
Lelkes (2022) and Bronnenberg and Dubé (2022) provide thoughtful comments on Liaukonytė et al. (2022) and give additional context for how our work relates to the broader literature on political consumerism, polarization, and corporate political engagement. The comments also highlight important areas for future research especially as they relate to the generalizability of our findings, identification challenges, and consumer motivation to engage in political consumerism. In this rejoinder, we expand on each of these three points. In revisiting the generalizability angle, we also document the aftermath of another high-profile social media boycott campaign: widely publicized calls to boycott Spotify did not harm Spotify's subscriber numbers or revenue, which grew at a similar rate as before the controversy. We discuss this and other similarities between the Spotify and Goya boycotts.

Lessons from the Bud Light Boycott, One Year Later

with Jura Liaukonyte and Anna Tuchman. Harvard Business Review (March 2024)

Inference and Impact of Category Captaincy

Management Science (2024)

Abstract
This paper studies category captaincy, a vertical relationship where retailers delegate shelf placement and pricing decisions of an entire product category to one of the leading manufacturers within that category. These contracts involve preferential treatment given to certain brands within the retailer. However, they are confidential and empirical analysis has been limited. To study the prevalence and welfare impact of these contracts, I develop a novel approach to infer the presence of captaincy contracts based on preferential treatment in shelf placement and pricing. I first classify retailers into different captaincy types based on a brand * retailer specific quality of shelf placement inferred from a demand model. I then conduct pricing tests and find that captains, in line with theoretical predictions and industry anecdotes, eliminate double markups from their own products but not from competitor products. Comparative statics show that captaincy relationships increase the market share of the captain, but they can also increase consumer welfare by about 5% due to the elimination of double markups on the captain's products.

Who Is AI Replacing? The Impact of ChatGPT on Online Labor Markets

with Ozge Demirci and Jonas Hannane. Management Science (2025)
Media Coverage: The Washington Post, Vanity Fair, Harvard Business School D3 Insights, IB Knowledge, MIT Sloan Management Review, Crisscrossed, The Wall Street Journal, Fast Company, Associated Press, Daily Mail, The Mirror, NBC New York, The Economic Times, TIME Magazine

Abstract
This paper studies the impact of Generative AI technologies on the demand for online freelancers using a large dataset from a leading global freelancing platform. We identify the types of jobs that are more affected by Generative AI and quantify the magnitude of the heterogeneous impact. Our findings indicate a 21% decrease in the number of job posts for automation-prone jobs related to writing and coding, compared to jobs requiring manual-intensive skills, within eight months after the introduction of ChatGPT. We show that the reduction in the number of job posts increases competition among freelancers while the remaining automation-prone jobs are of greater complexity and offer higher pay. We also find that the introduction of Image-generating AI technologies led to a 17% decrease in the number of job posts related to image creation. We use Google Trends to show that the more pronounced decline in the demand for freelancers within automation-prone jobs correlates with their higher public awareness of ChatGPT’s substitutability.

Research: How Gen AI Is Already Impacting the Labor Market

with Ozge Demirci and Jonas Hannane. Harvard Business Review (November 2024)

Work in progress

Estimating Consumers’ Preferences for Sugar: Evidence from Reformulations

with Stephan Seiler, Jiajia Zhan

Vertical Relationships and New Product Introduction—Evidence from the US Yogurt Industry

with Marco Duarte, Meilin Ma, and Yujing Song

Category Captaincy and its Impact on Private Label Segment: Evidence from the Cereal Aisle

with Aaron Adalja and Jura Liaukonyte

Blog
Measuring Political Polarization of CPG Brands
Authors: Jūra Liaukonytė (Cornell), Anna Tuchman (Northwestern Kellogg), Xinrong Zhu (Imperial College)
The interactive visualization presents the following two metrics for the top 300 CPG brands in the U.S., using data from U.S. household shopping in 2019:
  • X-axis: Brand’s Political Polarization Index measures the relationship between household shopping patterns across geographic regions in 2019 and the voting patterns of those regions in the 2020 Presidential election. A larger absolute value of the index (further from zero) indicates a more uneven distribution of the brand’s relative popularity across politically divergent regions. See below for details on the methodology.
  • Y-axis: Brand’s Expenditure Share in 2019, shown on a logarithmic scale, with a higher position indicating greater national sales. See below for details on the methodology. Disclaimer and Limitations: This index reflects the correlation between consumers’ shopping patterns across geographic regions and the political voting trends in those regions, not necessarily the political affiliations of the shoppers. Additionally, the index does not represent the political views of the brands themselves.
Methodology: The Brand’s Political Polarization Index is reported in Liaukonyte, Tuchman and Zhu (2023) and is based on the methodology outlined in the accompanying research note, which also contains the list of the estimated indices for all 300 brands.
Relevant research: Liaukonytė, J., Tuchman, A. and Zhu, X., 2023. Frontiers: Spilling the Beans on Political Consumerism: Do Social Media Boycotts and Buycotts Translate to Real Sales Impact?. Marketing Science, 42(1), pp.11-25.
Liaukonytė, J., Tuchman, A. and Zhu, X., 2024. Political Polarization Indices of the Top CPG Brands: Research Note. Available at SSRN 4766899.
Liaukonytė, J., Tuchman, A. and Zhu, X., 2024. Lessons from the Bud Light Boycott, One Year Later. Harvard Business Review.
Acknowledgements: Data is from Numerator. The authors thank Tomas Keršulis for excellent research assistance in developing the interactive tool.
For the best experience, view the interactive visualization on a desktop rather than a mobile device.